September 11, Intel office in Beijing on Skylake of new media to engage in a separate appearances, general manager of Intel China area Yuebei Xia also specifically with several media to do a long exchange.
From interactive content look, Intel for their Skylake still very confident, after upgrading the infrastructure and technology to bring significant performance improvements and reduce power consumption, and has been relatively weak in the graphics processor, Intel also has a lot of progress. In addition, Intel also introduced in Yuebei Xia 5G, storage, distribution and progress of some embedded, networking, smart home and other aspects.
From the 1970s to the year 2007, Intel has been a leader level IT industry manufacturers. But after 2007, Apple, Google mobile revolution triggered by Intel did not get the chance. Technically, Intel has been the global industry leader, but in the market, Intel is being challenged.
Intel encountered any problems? It is the way of the future should be how to go? We used to be the essence of analysis.
First, what is the nature of Intel’s success?
We look at the history of the IT industry, from the IBM mainframe to minicomputer DEC, IBM’s PC, to today’s smartphones. Core driving force behind the progress of Moore’s Law is lower semiconductor manufacturing process.
As semiconductor technology evolved to a certain level, it will develop a suitable hardware, supporting software and applications have to meet the people’s needs.
Intel’s success over the past few decades, in essence, is accompanied by the PC’s success. In the era of the PC and the Mac, IBM established the PC / AT machine standard, Intel supplies chips, Microsoft provides the operating system. The popularity of desktop computing to every household, the number reached one billion levels and escalating demand, Intel and Microsoft created the brilliant in the last few decades.
In this process, the user experience is actually grasp PC hardware vendors and Microsoft, and Intel is providing technical solutions. If it was to establish a standard, Microsoft and Apple, also select Motorola processors, so Intel may still be an unknown technology-based small companies.
Although Intel has excellent technology, but the final choice in the hands of users. The user needs is the end product, to provide to the user experience is the end product of Microsoft, is a PC manufacturer. Wintel inside, Win in the foreground, Intel in the background.
Two, Intel Why not get the chance in the mobile space?
Let us look at 2007, Apple led the smartphone revolution, this time Steve Jobs is only repeated he did things in the 1970s, technology development to a certain height, the mobile device can bring a better experience. Apple developed iPhone, the experience to users, Google developed Android to follow suit.
But this time Apple and Google did not choose Intel, but chose ARM.
Although from a technical point of view, Intel’s Core M processor is now stronger than any ARM, but ARM in iOS and Android have been prejudiced.
Software ecosystem around ARM in the mobile space is set up, even though Intel has a better performance, it is difficult to catch up.
In the PC era, Microsoft and Intel combined make X86 desktop software become ecological standards. By this strong ecosystem, Intel can make money, technology research and development, a virtuous cycle, extend from the desktop to the server. Squeezed out skilful Alpha, PowerPC ……
Today, the role reversal. ARM ecosystem rely on the mobile space, forming a virtuous circle, technology advances, Intel began to threaten the position of the desktop, the latest release of the iPad Pro is aimed at the commercial market. And this market has traditionally been part of Microsoft and Intel.
By changing the PC era and the era of smart phones, we can see that the background Intel, ARM fate of these companies, in fact, is the foreground Microsoft, Apple, Google these companies choose so decided.
Users just need to experience the outstanding final product, they do not care about who used these products processor, the end product to them what they what. Success depends on the success of the end product manufacturers backstage.
Intel’s mobile era encountered trouble, not Intel’s technology is a problem, but at the beginning of the mobile revolution, terminal manufacturers and software vendors have not selected Intel. Later ecosystem form, Intel will lose the opportunity.
Third, how to seize the next outlet?
After the mobile revolution, the next outlet in what? Is a common problem the industry is networking? Is a smart home? Is a wearable device? We do not know.
But from the people’s demand, there are two areas have bright prospects. In the near future, VR virtual reality technology bottleneck is relatively small (currently computing performance and graphics technology are no bottlenecks), but brings experience in the entertainment field upgrade is relatively large, there will be good prospects. This is a small vent.
From the long-term perspective, artificial intelligence technology if it reaches a certain height, can replace human labor. Then the future of robots doing housework, perhaps the same as today’s PC to enter every home, and unmanned vehicles, unmanned factories are inseparable from artificial intelligence, which is a large outlet.
If Intel wants to seize the opportunity of the future outlet, early intervention is necessary. The technical merits is one thing, the most important thing is to let future developers to use Intel’s platform to develop.
VR technology is not big bottleneck, but the ecosystem has not been established; and artificial intelligence technology also requires a very long period. If Intel can do this kind of development to ensure that all companies are using Intel’s platform for development, then the next time the popular, Intel platform naturally become standard in the future ecosystem around Intel’s platform will also be established.
Once the ecosystem around Intel platform established, then Intel will grasp the next outlet.
Just think, if iPhone or Android in the development phase of the program on the use of Intel, iOS and Android all applications are based on the development of the X86 instruction set, then today’s Intel will be across desktop and mobile king two areas.
Missed a chance does not matter, they do not continue to make mistakes, the next will be able to grasp.
Fourth, the future path of Intel
(A) high-resolution PC ecology is hope
We can put Intel’s business is divided into several parts. PC or Intel’s cash flow, the main source of profits and cash Intel still need them.
The problem is that Microsoft does not market to force, the new operating system, the new processors can not give the user a better experience.
Intel hopes eliminated more than 5 years PC. But the reality is that the old PC Windows XP installed on the system, its operation experience even better than installing a new PC Windows 10 system.
Apple’s iMac with a 5K demonstrated the new technology’s charm, and Microsoft lackluster in recent years, Intel will follow at a disadvantage. PC users upgrade slow down, Intel money will slow down the speed.
In fact, Apple has pointed out the future road, high resolution, high PPI can give users a better experience, facilitate the user to replace the old computer. Intel to do is with partners (Microsoft, software vendors, game makers) together with the establishment of computer ecological 4K resolution even 8K resolution. Intel provides technical solutions, so as to speed up the elimination of old computer speed, improve profits on the PC.
(B) all the nuclear and fast storage is the source of high-margin
Intel at the top Skylate made significant progress, this is mainly reflected in power, Core M 4.5W power consumption can be achieved in a single-threaded resolve performance i5.
And in the fast storage, 3D XPoint also a revolutionary progress, resistance storage is a breakthrough in traditional principle of flash memory, performance times.
Both technological advances can bring immediate business profits, and applications in the supercomputers and cloud computing.
In the end of the era, the industry has more demand for cloud computing capabilities, and Core M is very suitable to make all the core architecture, alternative out now Knights Landing, widely used in supercomputers and cloud computing.
And 3DXPoint allows flash memory to provide performance closer, but also very suitable for supercomputers and cloud computing.
And in this area of expertise, is not sensitive to the cost, Intel can get quite huge profits.
So, now the full development of these two areas, providing total solutions, promote commercial can give Intel offer high profit margins make digital earnings look better.
(Iii) the development of virtual reality and artificial intelligence to participate in deciding the future
As already said, the future of virtual reality is a small outlet, artificial intelligence is a big outlet. If the Intel platform will become standard in these two areas, so that the ecosystem around these Intel established, Intel can grasp the next outlet.
Virtual reality will take several years to establish ecology, but I am afraid to AI to mature in 10 years as a unit.
Intel to do is to advance mass, developers depth of cooperation with these two areas, to assist developers to build the industrial chain, allow themselves to be the most important part of the chain, so that all standard both fields all around Intel’s platform to build. Once the standard is established, then the Intel lucrative in the coming decades will benefit.
In 1968, when Intel was founded just a small company doing SRAM. In the PC era, Intel in the processor business has achieved great success, becoming today’s IT industry leaders. Today, Intel will usher in a new era, Intel in the new era will be successful? We try to be objective.