As a multinational management consultancy McKinsey analyst (McKinsey) of, Christopher Thomas is always thinking outside the box, so this time in the market for Internet of Things (IoT) rush to boom, his position in the company in charge of the Asian semiconductor market research proposed things on the question, is not surprising.
“Things did not, analysts say the market will not be great, but we still hold reservations about this;” in a Silicon Valley in the United States by the SEMI Industry Strategy Summit (Industry Strategy Symposium) on, even though almost everyone things to emerging markets optimistic outlook, Thomas’s question is: “If things are not so large size of the market, or have to spend much longer than expected time to take off?”
A very real challenge is that things are not expected to generate short-term gains; Thomas cited a recent survey, the survey pointed out that high-order business executives in that 80% believe that things in 2017 the company’s revenue Camp contribution received less than 10%, as well as five percent corporate executives believe that less than 5%.
Another survey showed, consumer networking products on the market may be very narrow ──Thomas said that the current average annual income wearable device users about $ 4,000 to $ 180,000, while the average annual income of users of smart home devices are about 130 000 $ 5,000, which is higher than the global average annual household income of $ 7,000 too much.
And Thomas also pointed out that the market for the future cars will be built-in networking chips more discussion may miss an upcoming emerging trends ── most cars currently on the market bear 150 microcontrollers, but they are mostly ineffective spread in different subsystems: “As engineers redesigned vehicle architecture to achieve autopilot, those subsystems will become more efficient, it will be more towards the integration of chip design, handle more content.”
The value of the electronics industry reallocation is taking place, but the direction is toward software segment migration. With large data can see the big picture, forecasting demand and create new applications and services, that have the right to decide the rules of the game. Insiders even suggested in the early Sensor must sell cheap, or even free. Sensor weight low, IC chip price can not be too expensive, so we look at this market is not the same as before the play ……
Unable to make money from something other than chips
In addition to questioning the industry to hold the general expectation of things, Thomas in his speech also smart phone, a personal computer (PC) as well as the future of the Chinese market to raise some questions; he believes that several positive trends in the electronics industry has to rely on there are indications that may change, such as smart phones and Chinese markets are likely to recession, while the PC and the Japanese market is likely to recover.
“In the past few years in the smartphone industry, there are many hardware engineers to leave, which is a negative effect on the industry concerned;” Thomas said smart phones are now following the economic model ── PC all are concerned with the time to market, innovation is the force pushing down from the application to the semiconductor components. ”
Maori smartphone has shrunk from 30% to 10%; Thomas said: “This means that there is no money to keep doing research and development, as innovation in the PC industry lies in the operating system and processor, not the other;” he had Intel (Intel) worked for nearly a decade, of which three are responsible for the China market.
Smart phone industry’s situation highlights the old question of the electronics industry: “This is what we can not earn money from something other than chips; we do more and more work for the software industry, but did not receive a reward.” Thomas estimates value of the software that have not been recognized as much as $ 75 billion.
In the smartphone into profit engine, while PC sales may recover ── or from falling off a cliff; Thomas, said: “PC application is still a lot to promote the most advanced wafer process, so whether it is the revival of innovation or another large amplitude fall, are very important. ”
Likewise, many of today’s electronics industry strategy relies growing Chinese market and the industry, but the country’s annual economic growth rate has slowed down, came to 7 percent, is likely to further decelerate to mature to about 2%; Thomas, said: “a variety of substantial growth in strength have been completed, when all bets are on it, what will happen when the Chinese market slowdown? that will happen in two years or five years or 10 years? ”
Thomas cited the case of a series of changes in market conditions, from Japan to Wall Street, and asked the audience to consider the electronic industry under the impact of possible: “Sometimes in 2 to 3 years, the industry will have a very different, or terrible something happened, and how we should be because the key. ”
Two Asian markets may
“The Chinese government’s ambition to be successful in the field of semiconductor industry is very real,” per se, Thomas lived in Beijing, said: “There is worth about $ 120 billion they want to transfer to China of the supply chain.” He warned that the Chinese may use a price war to reach the goal.
In addition to China, Thomas said that Japan may be another amazing ── Asian markets if the yen prices, as well as ease the dilemma of return on invested capital, chance of recovery: “They have lost almost all (electronics industry) in the field market share, but they have the ability is unmatched. “